While Bitcoin enthusiasts celebrated a historic all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, the party appears to be over—at least for now. The premier cryptocurrency has plummeted over 22% from its peak, currently languishing between $80,000-$85,000 as investor sentiment plunges into “extreme fear” territory.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju didn’t mince words when he declared the bull cycle finished. His prediction? A brutal 6-12 months of bearish or sideways action. Not exactly what the “to the moon” crowd wanted to hear. He pointed to diminishing liquidity and a concerning lack of fresh capital entering the market.
Sound familiar? It should—similar patterns emerged in previous bear markets of 2018, 2015, and 2011.
Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle theory, tied to halving events, suggests we shouldn’t expect another serious peak until 2025-2026. April’s halving event typically precedes major bull runs by 12-18 months. The recent April 2024 issuance reduction event cut Bitcoin’s block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin. Do the math. It’s not pretty for impatient investors.
The institutional cavalry that rode in with US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals appears to be retreating. ETF inflows are slowing down. Some are even seeing outflows. Not great.
Broader economic factors aren’t helping either. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional markets means stock market weakness is dragging crypto down too. Interest rates, inflation data, geopolitical tensions—Bitcoin feels it all now.
Technically speaking, Bitcoin faces stiff resistance at $90,000-$91,000, with critical support around $75,000-$78,000. The 200-day moving average has flipped from friend to foe. On-chain valuation metrics scream overvaluation.
Long-term predictions remain wildly divergent. Some analysts maintain $200,000+ targets for late 2025 or 2026. Others see a potential crash to $60,000 or even $40,000 before any meaningful recovery. According to historical data analysis, we should anticipate a market bottom around May 2027 before the next significant upward trend begins.
This cycle pattern aligns with Bitcoin’s finite supply cap of 21 million coins, which creates programmed scarcity that has historically driven value following halvings.
For now, the crypto rollercoaster seems headed for a prolonged flat section. Buckle up—or maybe just take a nap. This ride might take a while.
