As the Treasury market experiences its most significant volatility surge in four months, Bitcoin‘s ambitious march toward $90,000 faces new headwinds. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in the Treasury market over the next 30 days, has spiked to 115 — its highest level since November 6. That’s a whopping 38% increase in just three weeks. Not great timing for crypto bulls.
Bitcoin currently hovers around $82,000, with analysts still forecasting prices well above $90,000. But the Treasury market might have something to say about that. History shows these things are connected, whether crypto enthusiasts want to admit it or not. Remember when BTC surged from $70,000 to $108,000 after the November 4 election? That rally coincided with the MOVE index collapse, which eased financial conditions. Not a coincidence.
When Treasury volatility spikes, it creates a ripple effect. Risk appetite shrinks. Leverage gets scaled back. Liquidity dries up. These aren’t ideal conditions for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s potential recovery could face delays if this volatility persists. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has dropped to 4.11% amid tariff discussions, further complicating the market outlook. Simple as that.
The softer-than-expected February inflation data should be good news for Bitcoin. Cooling inflation strengthens the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, typically a positive for risk assets. But those Treasury market gyrations? They’re throwing a wrench in the works.
Market sentiment turns risk-averse when Treasury volatility rises. Investors get jitty. They start ditching risky assets. Despite this uncertainty, Matt Mena from 21Shares expects an imminent Bitcoin price increase. And Bitcoin, for all its “digital gold” talk, still falls squarely in the risk-asset category. The current economic uncertainty could paradoxically drive more investors toward Bitcoin as they seek alternative stores of value outside traditional markets.
The correlation between Treasury market volatility and Bitcoin price movement is clear. When the MOVE index bottomed out, Bitcoin peaked. Now that relationship is being tested again.
Will Bitcoin push past the sub-$90K range as many analysts expect? Maybe. But first, it’ll need to weather this Treasury market turbulence. And that’s no small task. The next few weeks will be telling.
